Quarter 2, 2025 Review
“Things happen Fast”
What a difference a quarter makes. From doom, to gloom, to Boom! As we have opined ad nauseum, “don’t let the emotions of the day derail a good investment plan”. This year is a great depiction of that. In today’s world of 24/7 news, social media overload, and shills wrapped in the cloak of “education”, it’s even more important to stay grounded.
On the equity (stock) side, the market started at S&P500 of around 5900 with a full sun sky and a bullish attitude. By April 8th we bottomed around 4900 with all the doom and gloom one would expect from a 20 percent point to point “Bear Market” (cap letters intended). As we sit today (June 27, 2025) we head into the new quarter with a new high on the S&P and up about 5 percent for the year. More noteworthy is the 25% move from the doom and gloom bottom in early April. The old adage “markets climb a wall of worry” is still a thing.
Interest rates (as measured by the 10-year treasury) are in a range of 3.75 to 4.75 percent and have been there for a couple of years. While they haven’t gone down, they also haven’t gone up. This provides stability as the economy has digested higher cost of money (aka interest rates) and has moved forward. Looking ahead, the “all eyes on the Fed” axiom is the theme as many are expecting the next move to be a cut in rates. We do believe this to be the case but also feel a lot of the upward move in Q2 was based on this expectation. As we always say, “markets lead, the economy follows”.
Looking ahead, we are indeed living in “interesting times” and there are lots of factors, both good and bad. On the negative side…Globally, government deficit spending needs to be reduced in a meaningful way. Stability on trade policy needs to happen. The housing market needs to open up. On the positive side, technology based real economic growth is happening, geopolitical headwinds (dare we say problems) are improving, and future visibility into tax policy are strong possibility. Something for everyone one might say!
Closing out the quarter, we remain in our market neutral position. Basically, this means we are right in the middle of our risk allocation targets with short to intermediate term fixed income as the anchor. Not too hot, not too cold.
As always, feel free to reach out to discuss this or any other matter be it investment, financial planning, or just to shoot the breeze. We work for you and never take that for granted. Stay well and enjoy the summer!
Ed, Frank, & Tammy
Edward Stiles
200 N Union St.
Kennett Square, PA 19348
cell 610-745-1931
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/ SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed insurance products and services are separate from and not offered through Commonwealth Financial Network
All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot actually invest directly into an index. Unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All references to markets, S&P500, NASDAQ, magnificent 7, stocks, equities, bonds, interest rates, Muni’s, and treasury securities, are notional and for informational and explanation purposes only.
This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.