A Personal Note and Market Update I can’t thank you all enough for the outpouring of support and kind words I’ve received over the past few days following the passing of my brother, Brian. For those of you who may not know, Brian passed away last Saturday after a courageous battle with cancer. My family—Ed, Tammy, and I—are deeply appreciative of your compassion, generosity, and love during this difficult time. Markets: Moving Quickly Amid Uncertainty By Frank Vance Lately, it feels a bit like 2020 all over again. Markets are experiencing extreme volatility, with swings of 10% in a matter of days. Earlier this month, the S&P 500 was down nearly 11%, yet we’ve rebounded sharply and now sit roughly flat for the month. These kinds of moves, while unsettling, are not unusual in the face of significant macroeconomic shifts—tariffs being just one example. Looking beyond the headlines, recessionary signals are beginning to emerge. Interest rates have remained elevated for nearly three years, and corporate America is starting to feel the pressure. Layoffs are spreading across industries, and consumer spending is beginning to soften. Aside from the brief and unique recession during the pandemic, the U.S. hasn’t seen a traditional downturn since 2008–2009. Recessions, while often feared, are a natural part of the economic cycle. The key questions are when and how long. From our perspective, current corporate earnings, legislative flexibility, and interest rate levels suggest we are in a far better position to weather a potential recession than we were when rates were artificially low. Policymakers and businesses alike now have more tools at their disposal. It’s also important to remember that a recession doesn’t necessarily spell disaster for the markets. Just look at the performance over the past few weeks. As we’ve often said, the market is a forward-looking mechanism—it doesn’t wait for good news to act. In 2020, despite nearly 20 million jobs lost between March and April, the market rallied significantly in anticipation of recovery. Where Do We Go From Here? We expect continued volatility ahead and, frankly, don’t have a strong directional call in the short term. That’s why we’re maintaining a market-neutral stance for now, avoiding any major shifts. In times like these, staying grounded is essential. Reacting emotionally to short-term moves often leads to poor decisions and missed opportunities. Our focus remains on long-term fundamentals, sound strategy, and helping clients navigate through uncertain times with clarity and confidence. Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to discuss your portfolio or have any questions. Thank you again for your continued support—it truly means the world to my family and me. Ed, Frank, & Tammy Edward Stiles 200 N Union St. Kennett Square, PA 19348 cell 610-745-1931 stilesed@retire-me.com frank@retire-me.com Securities and Advisory Services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/ SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed insurance products and services are separate from and not offered through Commonwealth Financial Network All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot actually invest directly into an index. Unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All references to markets, equities, stocks, crypto, bonds, individual stocks, interest rates, Muni’s, and treasury securities, are notional and for informational and explanation purposes only. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets, and diversification cannot guarantee that any objective or goal will be achieved. This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. |
Markets: Moving Quickly Amid Uncertainty
